Archive for February, 2008


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A forex device I can get my head around
Financial Times, UK - 19 hours ago
By David Stevenson My search for the ultimate alternative asset class – that mythical beast that can be used as a counterbalance to equity investments

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FOREX-Dollar pressured on data, halts slide versus euro
Reuters - Feb 29, 2008
By Lucia Mutikani NEW YORK, Feb 29 (Reuters) – The dollar fell to record lows against the euro and a basket of currencies for a fourth straight day on

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[US STOCK UPDATE] The Dow and other major indices fell hard in broad-based selling amid more gloom and doom headlines. All major sectors fell while down stocks swamped winners by a wide margin on higher volume. The Dow and Nasdaq ended with -2.5% loss. Financials led the way down, hit on AIG's big writedown loss while a bank-led effort to help bond insurer Ambac reportedly hit a snap. Selling picked up steam following a much weaker than f/cast Chicago-PMI. That added to other grim regional mfg surveys, with investors bracing for the nation ISM to follow suit when released next week. On top of that, S&P downgraded or put on negative watch more Alt-A RMBS/CDOs debt while Moody's still reviewing bond insurer Ambac. The flight-to-safety pushed 2-yr Tsy yield to new lows near 1.60% while Usd lost more ground while gold jumped investors asset-fears

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[NZ WEEK AHEAD] RBNZ's qtrly MPS features on Thurs (Wed 20.00GMT). with little doubt that the Reserve bank will continue to leave rates firmly on hold at 8.25%, as it attempts to balance reining high inflation against waning domestic demand. Persistent inflationary pressures from an ongoing tight labour mkt as well as an upwards trend in food and fuel prices is expected to see an overall hawkish undercurrent prevail. However with downside risks mounting from a crumbling housing mkt, sluggish consumer spending, an imminent global slowdown as well as the current local drought; the central bank's bias may start to be watered down, even if indirectly through a downgrade of its inflation & growth forecasts

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[AUST WEEK AHEAD] A key week ahead; with RBA in a back to back move, set to hawkishly raise rates at Tues's meeting to another fresh 11yr peak of 7.25%, in its blatantly strong bid to cool demand and rein in inflation. On the back of strong domestic demand & biz invt, Q4 GDP on Wed otherwise looks set to see the economy running at a sturdy 0.8% pace over Q4, resulting in robust above trend annual growth of ard 3.9%. Q4 biz figures are due on Mon in a final prelude, whilst retail sales on Tues looks set to have remained firm in Jan, supported by a tight labour mkt, despite the weight of higher funding costs and petrol. On Thur, a leap in merchandise imports suggests Jans trade gap will widen back out; whilst building approvals look set for a technical rebound after Dec'c 16% slump. All up, the events shld reinforce the economy's resilience in the face of the current global turmoil & higher rates, and keep RBA firmly on top of its tightening cycle

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[FED'S EVANS IN Q&A] The Chicago Fed chief is back with Q&A remarks, stressing again that since monetary policy works with a lag it is better to shift policy sooner than later once balance of risk changes. Next week offers more Fed speakers, starting with Philly's hawkish-minded Plosser on Monday. He will talk on monetary policy before an NABE confab. Later on at the same event Tsy chief Paulson will gives his outlook

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[Next Week in Japan II] On the data front, the calendar is relatively bare. Jan labor cash earnings on Monday should continue to point to sluggish wage growth (last -1.7% y/y) whilst on Tues, MOF's Q4 business capex figures will be eyed closely for any necessary revisions to the final GDP figures. On Thur, Jan's coincident index, measuring current econ conditions, is expected to pull back sharply below the boom or bust 50-50 line for the 1st time in 2mths, indicating that the economy may be at the crossroads with a lull. The leading DI, a yardstick for the economys performance in the coming mths is moreover set to remain well below the 50% line for a 6th straight mth, signalling Japans econ path remains grim

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[DAILY MARKET TALK] [HFs LIQUIDATE MORE MUNIs] As we noted earlier, the muni market has seen a mass exodus today with billions being sold by Tender Option Funds. Reuters now reports that the HFs, including Duration Capital, 1861, has been in heavily selling munis. The speculation in the Street this afternoon that more of these muni liquidations are being reallocated into short Treasuries

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[FREE IGM MONTHLY INTEREST RATE OUTLOOK] please be advised that the March IGM Monthly Interest Rate and Yield Outlook is now available. Apart from looking at the next central bank policy meetings, the overview this month examines the risks posed to the global economy/policy from the US housing/credit meltdown. In addition, ahead of next week's OPEC summit, there is an accompanying report analysing the technicals behind oil price dynamics and crude's behaviour around recent OPEC summits. For your free copy pleas e-mail sales@informagm.com with your name, institution and e-mail address

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